Discussing Belarus during “interesting” times: from Ukraine to China and beyond

The 2020 mass pro-democracy protests in Belarus and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine have fundamentally altered Belarus's geopolitical status.

This shift rapidly accelerated its integration into Russia’s orbit and involved it in war affairs, while simultaneously drawing increased attention from global powers like China and intensifying its isolation from Europe and the West. This discussion will move beyond the internal political crisis to analyze how these external pressures — war, dependency, and new global alignments — are shaping the nation's future and defining the strategies of the domestic and international actors.

This discussion will explore the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Belarus, analyzing both internal and foreign policy implications while highlighting the geopolitical and regional context. In addition, the panel will address Belarus-Ukraine relations in times of war, the dynamics of EU-Belarus relations, the growing influence of China and other global actors, and assess the current prospects for ‘regime change’.

The discussion will be held alongside the presentation of the recently published Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Belarus. The book provides a thorough overview of the country's history, politics, and international relations, raising several key questions. These include whether the regime should be re-classified as (neo)totalitarian; what opportunities exist for civil society under current circumstances; the impact of sanctions and instrumentalization of issues like migration; the role of regional security dynamics and war in regime survival; and possible future scenarios for 2026. The authors will draw on their chapters' findings to shed light on these points.